Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
